In the world of Pokémon trading cards, few sets have captured the imagination and excitement of collectors like Evolving Skies. Originally released in 2021, this expansion combined fan-favorite Evolutions like Umbreon, Sylveon, and Rayquaza with some of the most striking alternate art cards in the Sword & Shield era. Fast-forward to 2025, and Pokemon Evolving Skies are more than just nostalgic artifacts—they’re potential gold mines.
But what are the real odds of pulling one of those jaw-dropping alternate art cards from a 2025 booster box? Is the chase still worth it, or is the thrill mostly in the nostalgia? Let’s break it down with a clear-eyed look at the numbers, the trends, and the personal experience of cracking open one of these coveted boxes in today’s market.
The Appeal of Evolving Skies
There’s a reason Evolving Skies booster boxes have surged in value. The set is packed with highly desirable chase cards, particularly alternate art versions of Eeveelutions and dragons like Rayquaza VMAX Alternate Art and Umbreon VMAX “Moonbreon,” which has become iconic in its own right.
Collectors love it because of the variety: over 200 cards in the set, with dozens of Full Arts, Secret Rares, and Alternate Arts. These factors make each booster pack feel like a genuine treasure hunt. That’s the allure—and also the trap.
What’s Inside a Booster Box?
A standard Evolving Skies booster box contains 36 packs. Each pack has 10 cards, including one guaranteed rare or better. The distribution is fairly typical for the era:
- About 6 to 8 Ultra Rare or higher pulls per box
- 1 to 2 Full Art or Alternate Art cards
- Roughly 1 Secret Rare (not guaranteed)
- A mix of holographic rares, reverse holos, and bulk cards
But here’s the catch: alternate arts are not guaranteed. You could open an entire box and walk away without a single Alt Art pull. Conversely, you could strike big with an Umbreon VMAX Alt Art, which in 2025 still commands premium prices on resale platforms.
The Odds of a Gold Pull
Let’s talk about odds.
In general, the estimated pull rate for an Alternate Art V or VMAX in Evolving Skies is roughly 1 in 100 to 120 packs. That means you’re not even guaranteed one in a single booster box.
The odds of pulling the most coveted cards—like Umbreon VMAX Alt Art—are even slimmer. Estimates suggest that card has a less than 1 in 500 pack appearance rate. That’s less than 0.2% per pack. Not impossible, but certainly not likely.
Gold cards (Secret Rare Items or Pokémon with golden foiling) also fall in the range of 1 in 70–90 packs, depending on the print run and batch. So again, you’re not guaranteed one, but you might hit a single gold card in a box if luck is on your side.
Opening a Box in 2025: Then vs. Now
Back in 2021 and 2022, opening a box was affordable and part of regular hobby culture. In 2025, it’s a different story. The price of sealed Evolving Skies booster boxes has climbed steeply—hovering anywhere from $400 to over $600, depending on condition and seller.
This changes the stakes entirely. Now, you’re not just cracking packs for fun—you’re making a calculated gamble. And with such low odds of hitting one of the top 5 most valuable cards, the experience can either be thrilling or frustrating.
That said, many collectors argue the value isn’t just in monetary ROI. There’s a certain joy in revisiting a set that defined a period of modern collecting. The art, the chase, the feeling of tearing open a fresh pack—it’s hard to replicate.
A Realistic Breakdown: What You Might Pull
Here’s a sample breakdown of what you might find in a 2025 Evolving Skies booster box based on crowd-sourced data and collector reports:
- 8 Ultra Rares (V/VSTAR/VMAX)
- 1–2 Full Art Pokémon or Trainers
- 0–1 Alternate Art (V or VMAX)
- 0–1 Secret Rare (Gold or Rainbow)
- 10+ Holo Rares
- 30+ Reverse Holo cards
That means the odds of pulling one of the top 10 most valuable cards from the set is realistically less than 5%, possibly closer to 1% if you’re chasing the real showstoppers.
The Role of Print Runs and Reseals
One thing that’s important in 2025 is authenticity. As prices for Evolving Skies boxes rise, so do the chances of running into resealed or tampered boxes. If you’re buying one, stick to reputable sellers, check for proper sealing, and look for verified authenticity. Many fakes are nearly indistinguishable until it’s too late.
Additionally, there’s some debate about the distribution of hits across different print waves. Some collectors swear certain waves had better pull rates, but this remains anecdotal.
Should You Open or Keep It Sealed?
This is the million-dollar question—literally for some collectors.
If your primary goal is to pull a top-tier Alternate Art, understand that the odds are not in your favor. It’s entirely possible to spend hundreds of dollars and walk away with cards that don’t come close to your box’s value. If you’re looking at this from a financial angle, keeping the box sealed is often the smarter choice. A sealed box will likely appreciate in value more predictably than any individual card you might pull.
But if you’re in it for the thrill, the nostalgia, or to complete your collection the traditional way, the experience can still be incredibly rewarding. Just go in with realistic expectations.
Final Thoughts
Opening a 2025 Evolving Skies booster box is a journey—a blend of chance, hope, and passion. While the odds of pulling gold (figuratively or literally) aren’t high, the set’s artistic value and emotional weight still make it one of the most celebrated expansions in modern Pokémon history.
At Top Ripping, we bring the thrill of Trading Card Games (TCG) to collectors and players worldwide. Specializing in Booster Packs, Elite Trainer Boxes, Rare Collectibles, and Exclusive Sets, we provide top-quality TCG products from brands like Pokémon, Yu-Gi-Oh!, and Magic: The Gathering. Join our live ‘Rip & Ship’ events on TikTok, where we open packs in real time and ship them directly to you. With secure, fast shipping and a passion for the TCG community, we ensure an exciting and seamless experience.
